Why we need to build an implicit trust in science

From the growing presence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in our daily lives to novel medical therapies, progress in science and technology affects us all — mostly in positive ways. But the pace of change brought by science can lead to bewilderment and fear, especially among those who have little familiarity with the culture of scientific research.

Scientific discovery is a complex process that often involves years of trial and error, as well as debates about statistical significance, causality, and other technical matters. It is this complexity that partly explains why science is not better understood by more individuals; it also partly explains why scepticism of science exploded to new heights.

Consider the conspiracy theories and anti-vaccine disinformation that proliferated during the Covid-19 pandemic. True, such developments also reflect growing distrust of government and institutions and acute political polarisation in many countries. But these problems feed on the meaty scientific scepticism and misapprehension that arise (especially) during what are arguably black swan events like Covid-19. Even trying to ascertain the degree of the dynamic is fraught, with firm measures hard to come by and not clearly correlating to vaccine or climate-change skepticism. A recent report from the Pew Research Center reveals that only 29 per cent of adults in the US say they have a great deal of confidence in medical scientists to act in the best interests of the public, down from 40 per cent towards the end of 2020.

Doubts about the legitimacy of science cannot be addressed without acknowledging that science has not always been used for good. From the Tuskegee syphilis study to the well-paid experts who attested to the safety of tobacco, history provides myriad examples of harm caused by those claiming the mantle of science. But these cases are not representative of the entire scientific enterprise. Most scientists do what they do because they are dedicated to advancing the frontier of human knowledge.

While the anti-vaccine movement long predates Covid-19, the pandemic breathed new life into it partly because scientists were trying to make sense of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its impact publicly and in real time. The discovery that the virus could be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers and was mostly airborne marked a turning point.

Most people then rightly welcomed the arrival of lifesaving vaccines, which they saw as a testament to the scientific community’s agility, expertise, and social value. Though the new vaccines were delivered in record time, they also were merely the latest chapter in a long saga of miraculous breakthroughs dating back to the vaccines against smallpox and polio.

But now that a growing number of people have refrained from immunising their children, polio and other preventable scourges have been making an alarming — albeit still limited — comeback. Odder still, many who have resisted Covid-19 vaccines have been willing to turn to untested, unfounded remedies. Unfortunately, this is what happens when people come to see all of science as a black box. When science-based recommendations evolve to account for new findings — including those that falsify earlier findings — the doubters see incompetence and cover-ups where they should see the scientific method at work.

In the face of new situations, it is standard practice for scientists to test their theories continuously and update their advice to reflect new facts. Even a broad consensus among the scientific community does not imply absolute certainty. Three years after the start of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 still has not revealed all its mysteries. Researchers continue to gather evidence on its mutations and lasting effects, including the phenomenon of “long Covid”.

— Project Syndicate