Foldable devices pushing smartphones into new era

As I made my way back to Dubai from last month's Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, which takes place at the end of February each year, I was overcome with a feeling that was notably absent from my previous two visits to the event. Yes, I was once again truly excited about the immediate future of the smartphone industry.
Almost every major launch over the last few years has left consumers and analysts alike distinctly underwhelmed. The launch of the iPhone X in 2017 certainly generated significant interest, but since then everyone has been left hanging as they await 'the next big thing'.
There was valid speculation that innovation had somehow vacated the smartphone universe, never to be seen again. Fortunately, the smartphone industry heeded these fears and responded at MWC this year by bringing back the 'wow' factor in a BIG way.
Samsung and Huawei have taken it upon themselves to lead the industry into a brave new era by introducing an entirely new form factor - the foldable smartphone. In the week leading up to MWC, Samsung unveiled its version - the Galaxy Fold - at its own Unpacked event in San Francisco. Huawei followed suit at MWC with the launch of the Mate X, sparking frantic debate over which device is better.
The key difference between them is that while the Samsung Galaxy Fold opens up like a book to reveal a double-sized screen on the inside, the Huawei Mate X's dual screen folds around the outside of the device. The latter certainly won the hearts of analysts and bloggers at MWC and was named 'Best New Connected Mobile Device'.
Numerous other vendors followed suit, showcasing prototypes or unveiling their own interpretations of the foldable smartphone. For example, LG is essentially offering a second screen 'add on' for its LG V50 model, while Xiaomi's double-folding prototype leaves you with a compact - if thick - device. Oppo and Motorola also hinted that similar technology is lurking in their own product pipelines.
While these brands are all firm household names, it was actually a little-known startup called Royole that produced the world's first foldable smartphone. While its FlexPai offering, which debuted in November 2018, might not be as polished as those from Samsung and Huawei, it certainly won the race to market. And with all these tech giants scrambling to jump onboard the bandwagon, it's clear that the foldable form factor is here to stay.
While it's been a long time since consumers have been this excited, industry analysts are still left wondering whether these innovative devices are finally going to revive the ailing global smartphone market, which saw its worst year ever in 2018.
Here in the GCC, IDC's Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker shows that mobile shipments to the region slumped to 23.6 million units in 2018, the lowest in six years. With smartphone penetration already very high in the region, the lack of innovation in the industry and a tightening of disposable income have led consumers to conclude that there is simply no good reason to purchase the latest devices to hit the market.
The industry's fingers are tightly crossed in the hope that foldable devices will help buck this trend. And while these revolutionary devices undoubtedly represent an exciting new chapter in the smartphone story, I don't believe they will lead to a massive bump in shipments - at least not in 2019.
There are a number of reasons for this opinion. With price tags hovering around the $2,000 mark, the hefty outlay required to purchase one of these devices is likely to put off the vast majority of consumers.
There will also be very limited supply from the vendor side during 2019. Indeed, the only brands that are even ready at this stage with foldable smartphones for the market are Samsung and Huawei, and their devices aren't going to be launched until the end of April and some point in June, respectively.
So, despite the genuine buzz and excitement surrounding the arrival of these devices, a combination of limited supply, late launch dates, and hefty price tags are likely to prevent this long-awaited innovation in the smartphone space from driving any major jump in shipments in the near future, both regionally and globally.
IDC's latest forecast supports this assumption, with the IDC Mobile Phone Tracker for Q4 2018 predicting that the GCC will see a 2.3 per cent year on year decline in smartphone shipments in 2019. As with all technology innovations, this exciting new form factor will not go mainstream until later in the product lifecycle, once more brands are pushing foldable offerings at lower prices and economies of scale are generated.
That won't be until 2020 at the earliest, or even until 2021. But whenever it does finally happen, that is when we will see the next major boost in smartphone shipments.
The writer is senior research manager - Middle East, Africa and Turkey, IDC. Views expressed are her own and do not reflect newspaper's policy.