UAE traffic: Would an 'odd-even scheme' help ease peak-hour jams?

Motorists and commuters have observed road congestion has worsened these past few days with the re-opening of schools and return of residents from their summer holidays.

Roads in the UAE are generally wide and well-maintained but the sheer volume of vehicles create traffic jams, especially during rush hour. In fact, the country has one of the highest car ownership rates in the world, with many residents believing private vehicles are essential for daily commutes.

In Dubai, for instance, registered vehicles with Salik tags now stand at 4.2 million, up by 8.8 per cent as compared to the first six months of last year. Registered active accounts, meanwhile, increased by 14.6 per cent year-on-year – or about 2.5 million at present as compared to around 2.2 million in the second quarter of 2023.

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Five years ago, Khaleej Times reported – as per data provided by the Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) – that there was one car for every two residents, or 540 vehicles per 1,000 people; while cities like New York, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong respectively had 305, 213, 101 and 63 vehicles per 1,000 residents.

In 2006, less than two decades ago, the number of registered vehicles in Dubai stood only at around 740,000. This doubled to 1.4 million in 2015, and reached 1.83 million by 2020. At present, estimates suggest there are around 3 million cars moving around Dubai on busy week days, including cars coming from neighbouring emirates.

So, the question is: Would it help if we removed a certain number of cars off the road on certain days of the week to reduce traffic? Would an ‘odd-even scheme’ – that is being implemented in some major cities in the world – help ease peak-hour jams?

Road space rationing

Dr Monica Menendez, associate dean of Engineering for Graduate Affairs at New York University Abu Dhabi (NYUAD), explained: “The odd-even scheme – also called road space rationing – simply takes some cars out of the road on different days of the week, depending on the ending number of the license plate.”

This means vehicles with car plates ending in 1 and 2, are not allowed on the road on Monday; 3 and 4 on Tuesday; 5 and 6 on Wednesday; 7 and 8 on Thursday; 9 and 0 on Friday. All vehicles are allowed on the road on Saturday and Sunday, which are weekends.

“The scheme has been implemented in multiple cities around the world, including Mexico City, Athens, and Beijing. While some cities have used it on a permanent or semi-permanent basis, other cities have used it only on specific days. The policy, often implemented to mitigate air pollution, has seen different levels of success,” she told Khaleej Times.

Pros and cons of the scheme

Dr Menendez noted: “In theory, the odd-even scheme is a very direct and relatively easy way –assuming the right level of enforcement – to remove cars from the roads and mitigate traffic congestion and air pollution.”

“It would seem equitable – since everyone is potentially affected the same, independent of their income or social status. However, this is not necessarily the case, as households with more cars are typically less affected,” she added, explaining: “The policy might cause that people with more means end up buying more cars, and continue moving by private transportation every day of the week.

“This could actually lead to higher vehicle ownership rates, a larger demand for parking, etc,” said the NYUAD professor of civil and urban engineering, who is also director at Research Centre for Interacting Urban Networks.

Targeted approach

• Dubai: Travel time cut by 50% for 2 communities as RTA completes road works