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UAE analysts say Kamala Harris may play more active role in ending Middle East humanitarian crises

Experts highlighted she might also prioritise expanding economic ties with the UAE

If elected to the White House, Kamala Harris is likely to play a more active role in ending the humanitarian crises in conflict zones in the Middle East, say political analysts in the UAE.

The prediction comes after US President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid with Vice President Kamala Harris widely expected to become the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Experts here highlighted that the UAE has always played a vital role in counterterrorism, regional stability, and security.

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Deconstructing the factors for her electability, they believe, Harris will likely enhance this strategic partnership, furthering the strong defense and intelligence collaboration.

“The UAE is a crucial partner in counterterrorism efforts, regional stability, and security. Harris is likely to maintain and possibly deepen this strategic relationship, continuing the trend of strong defense and intelligence cooperation,” said Dr Kristian Alexander, a Senior Fellow and Lead Researcher at the Rabdan Security & Defense Institute (RSDI) in Abu Dhabi. “Under a Harris administration, the continuation of military sales and joint exercises could be expected.”

“This would ensure that the UAE remains well-equipped to counter regional threats and contribute to collective security initiatives.”

Expanding economic ties with the UAE

Alexander pointed out Harris might prioritise expanding economic ties with the UAE.

“This means focusing on sectors such as technology, renewable energy, and infrastructure. This would align with her broader policy goals of fostering sustainable economic growth and innovation.”

Strengthening existing trade agreements and exploring new ones could be on the agenda. “This may be aimed at enhancing bilateral trade and investment flows between the two nations.”

Notably, Harris flew to Dubai during COP 28 in December 2023, reaffirming in her speech how the “United States of America will once again be a global leader in the fight against the climate crisis". Harris also proudly announced a new $3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund, to support developing countries in investing in resilience, clean energy, and nature-based solutions.

President Sheikh Mohamed had held discussions with her on numerous issues on the agenda of the Climate Conference.

The discussion also highlighted cooperation between the two countries in renewable energy and sustainable development, focusing on joint initiatives.

“Given Harris’s commitment to addressing climate change, there could be increased collaboration with the UAE on sustainability initiatives, renewable energy projects, and environmental conservation efforts. This aligns with the UAE's ambitions to diversify its economy and invest in green technologies,” added Alexander.

Stance on Israel-Palestine conflict

Experts stressed that Harris's previous visit to the UAE for the UN Climate Conference, was also marked by discussions on the Israel-Palestine conflict, which happened on the sidelines.

Harris held talks with the UAE leadership on several regional and international issues of mutual interest, particularly related to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

“It will be interesting to see how she takes forward the partnership with the UAE to tackle the tricky policy and political crosscurrents,” said Dr Sonakshi Ruhela, former program head, School of Psychology and Health Sciences, Curtin University Dubai.

“Ms Harris has also spoken out in the past regarding the plight and human rights of Palestinians and has repeatedly called for the release of hostages held by militant groups in Gaza. She could prove to be more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than the Biden Administration,” she added.

The 59-year-old has expressed strong views on the ongoing conflicts in the region, including those in Yemen and Syria.

“Ms Harris is likely to play a more active role in ending the humanitarian crises in the conflict zones in the Middle East,” she added.

US foreign policy toward the region

Others also concurred that Harris’s view on the Middle East and her potential outlook on US Foreign Policy towards the region seems to be driven by a balanced approach that seeks to maintain traditional alliances while addressing humanitarian concerns and promoting diplomatic solutions.

“Her stance suggests a possible evolution in US policy towards a more nuanced and humanitarian-focused approach, particularly regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and engagement with Iran,” said Alexander.

She has consistently called for increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. “In a March 2024 statement, Harris urged, ‘We need to get more aid into Gaza. We need to get the hostages out. We need a ceasefire.’ From the looks of it, she seeks to balance support for Israel with increased attention to Palestinian rights and humanitarian needs,” he added.

Breaking the glass ceiling

Political pundits in the country highlighted while opting out from the presidential race Joe Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris for the post as Democrat candidate. Former US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton’s endorsement has brightened her chances to be nominated as the presidential candidate.

“Her endorsement carries weight as she wants to see a woman breaking the ‘glass ceiling’ to be the first woman to reach the highest political post in the country. Hillary was very close to realizing that goal but lost to Trump. In the first speech after losing the election she referred to the glass ceiling that she could not breach but hoped that sooner or later someone will break the glass ceiling,” said Shamshad A. Khan, Assistant Professor, International Relations (IR), BITS Pilani Dubai Campus, UAE.

“The time has come just within eight years and most probably another woman from the Democrat Party will be contesting against Trump this time.”

Shedding light on her winnability, Khan said it will depend on who she chooses to be her ‘Deputy’ for the post of Vice President.

“As has been witnessed during the ongoing Israel-Hamas/Palestine war, many democratic loyals are dismayed by the Democratic President's approach towards the conflict, especially repeated vetoes in the UN Security Council on a ceasefire in Gaza. If she chooses a more socialist-oriented democrat such as Bernie Sanders she might be able to win back the Democrats and anti-war American voters paving her way to victory,” he added.

Will her mixed lineage help Harris?

Harris's mother, Shyamala Gopalan, a cancer researcher and civil rights activist from Thulasendrapuram (India), moved to the US as a student in the late 1950s.

Her father, Donald J. Harris, a Jamaican professor of economics, also came to the US for higher studies. After her parents divorced, she and her sister lived with their mother.

Therefore, some political observers underline Harris’s mixed lineage and stance on various issues, including immigration could appeal to a broader audience, including the younger demographic and communities of colour.

“But the Indian diaspora in America will face a dilemma this time,” added Khan. “On the one side, it would be Kamala Harris, a person of Indian origin, and on the other side is JD Vance, Trump's VP nominee. His wife Usha also has Indian roots.”

“Moreover, Trump has a deep connection with Indian-Americans, especially the Indian business community. Besides, the assassination bid on Trump has made him a hero among the Republicans and the televised assassination has galvanised the Republican, especially to those who did not deem him fit for the presidency. Therefore, nothing can be said for certain at this stage,” said the IR professor.

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