UAE to see more rains, hotter weather over next 10 years: NCM official

An official at NCM recalled last April's heavy rains saying: 'The highest recorded was 259 mm in Khatm Al Shakla'

Waad Barakat

Published: Tue 12 Nov 2024, 6:00 AM

Last updated: Tue 12 Nov 2024, 9:35 PM

Rainfall intensity in the UAE is expected to increase by 10 to 20 per cent while average temperatures could rise by 1.7 degrees Celsius in the coming years, officials said on Monday, as the country braces for extreme weather events similar to last April's unprecedented rains.

“These changes are anticipated both in the short and long term,” said Dr Mohammed Al Abri, director of the Meteorology Department at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

Dr Al Abri also highlighted the pressing need for preparedness as climate forecasts indicate significant changes ahead. He said: “We expect an increase in rainfall rates over the coming decade, and it’s crucial to issue warnings, regardless of the accuracy of our forecasts.”

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This came as the Dubai Police hosted a seminar on 'Crisis and Natural Disaster Management'. Dr Al Abri also reviewed the mechanisms in place to address unusual weather conditions, such as the extreme rainfall last April.

Photos: Supplied

Dr Al Abri also discussed projections under a low emissions scenario, saying: “By the end of the century, we will see a gradual increase in annual average temperatures. This will lead to more nights with minimum temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius and an increase in days where daytime temperatures surpass 40 degrees Celsius.”

Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift, with a predicted increase in rainfall effectiveness by 20 per cent. Dr. Al-Abri emphasised the importance of these forecasts, stating, “We could see a significant rise in the highest rainfall recorded in a single day, increasing by 10 per cent to 25 per cent compared to current climate statistics.”

The meteorological infrastructure in the UAE, which includes 140 surface and marine weather stations, seven weather radars, and various monitoring systems, plays a crucial role in data collection and analysis.

Dr Al Abri recalled the exceptional rainfall recorded from April 14 to 17, where some areas received more than 100mm of rain. “The highest recorded was 259mm in Khatm Al Shakla, Al Marmoum saw 219 mm, making it the highest in Dubai,” he said.

The UAE and the wider region will be affected by climate change-related weather events over the next 10 years, officials said.

Lt-Gen Dhahi Khalfan bin Tamim, deputy chief of police and public security in Dubai, said that today, climate change "is one of the biggest challenges affecting individuals, institutions, and countries alike".

"Heavy rains and floods test our capacity to plan and respond effectively to mitigate the impacts of crises," he said.

Crisis management extends beyond immediate disaster response, he said. "It requires comprehensive strategies that begin with early planning, foster community collaboration, and focus on rehabilitation and rebuilding better after disasters."

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