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Even though the UAE is not located in a major earthquake zone, it occasionally experiences minor tremors. Reason: It is located near the Zagros mountain range — one of the most active seismic regions in the world.
A seismologist at the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) explained that the Zagros range, which stretches through Iran and Iraq, frequently records seismic activity, sometimes producing powerful earthquakes.
“These events, though often centred hundreds of kilometres away, can produce tremors that may be felt in parts of the UAE, especially in the Northern Emirates,” Mohamed Alhassani, acting head of Seismic Monitoring Section at the NCM, told Khaleej Times during an exclusive interview.
“We are part of the Arabian plate which is going towards the Eugene plate. The movement of these two plates causes earthquakes in Southern Iran in the Zagros mountains. This is considered to be the first seismic source around the UAE.”
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“The other one is the Makran Subduction Zone (located in the northern part of the Arabian Sea, off the southern coast of Iran and Pakistan). So, these two areas are considered the seismic sources surrounding the UAE.”
The veteran seismologist reiterates that the tremors the UAE might feel are generally mild and pose minimal risk to the country’s infrastructure. “The seismicity of the UAE itself is considered low. The biggest earthquake recorded according to the seismic catalogue was in Fujairah's Masafi region in 2002, with a magnitude of 5 on Richter scale,” he added.
Although dependent on various variables, damage typically doesn’t occur until the earthquake magnitude exceeds 4 or 5.
Meanwhile, the NCM continuously monitors seismic activity and collaborates with international agencies to ensure that the UAE is prepared to respond to any potential impact, focusing on emergency readiness and public awareness.
“To observe these seismic events, we have built the National Seismic Network. It consists of 25 stations and are distributed across all emirates in the UAE. These types of stations are known as the ‘Broadband Stations’. We also have another type called the ‘Strong Motion Stations’.”
Broadband stations are equipped with broadband seismometers capable of detecting a wide range of frequencies, from very low frequencies (long-period waves) to higher frequencies. They are typically designed to capture small, faraway seismic waves as well as local, large earthquakes.
On the other hand, unlike broadband stations, which can capture small and distant events, strong motion stations are less sensitive to weak motions but very effective in recording intense, localised shaking. They record high-frequency seismic waves and are essential in areas prone to strong earthquakes.
“The UAE has more than 85 strong motion stations and we exchange data with some neighbouring countries as well. We get data from more than 145 stations from the Global Seismic Network (GSN). We operate 24x7. This means that any significant events (of a certain magnitude) occurring globally or within the UAE, as well as other major global developments, are thoroughly analysed by us. We conduct analysis not only on local events but also on regional and global incidents.”
The expert highlighted that predicting earthquakes before they occur remains beyond current scientific capability across the world.
“No one can predict earthquakes exactly — unless it happens. But we know from geological studies that some areas are seismically active. For instance, a region may experience frequent earthquakes, yet it is impossible to forecast these events with certainty. We can later do the analysis only. This is done using our software programmes.”
Therefore, the centre relies on continuous monitoring and real-time data analysis.
“The process typically involves 24x7 monitoring of seismic data, with specialists analysing raw data to determine key parameters such as the earthquake’s location, depth, and magnitude. When significant seismic activity is detected, authorities are promptly informed to assess any necessary precautionary or emergency actions.”
He explained the approach allows for rapid response post-event, though efforts are still underway in the scientific community to improve early warning systems.
“These systems don’t predict earthquakes per se but can provide a few seconds’ notice by detecting initial, weaker seismic waves. Based on this information we inform the relevant authorities in case they need to take action,” added Alhassani.
Although the National Seismic Network was established in 2008, the UAE’s Seismic Catalogue includes both historical and instrumental data. “This means we have records dating back to before the network was officially set up, ” said Alhassani.
He explained a hypothetical scenario along the UAE’s two coasts—the western coast by the Arabian Gulf and the eastern coast along the Oman Sea — detailing how a high-intensity earthquake in neighbouring countries could trigger rising waves.
“In the event of a 6.5 magnitude earthquake occurring in the Makran subduction zone, there is a potential risk of wave surges along the UAE’s eastern coast, possibly resembling a tsunami. The impact depends on factors like the speed and travel time of the waves. These considerations must be carefully evaluated. However, our advanced analytical software can simulate these scenarios within minutes of the earthquake. This allows relevant agencies to swiftly respond and take necessary action,” added the senior seismologist.
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