Cuba's 'migratory stampede' has no end in sight

"Those were terrible times," the 61-year old pharmaceutical worker said in tears during an interview at her home in Havana. "When you have kids, you never think they will leave. But we all know the situation here."

It is no secret that Cuba's economic crisis has prompted a record-breaking exodus of its citizens - far exceeding similar mass migrations off the island, including the 1980 Mariel boatlift.

But even within Cuba, population scientists debate the scope of the country's population decline, with recent estimates ranging from around 10% since 2020, to nearly one in five residents in the past two years alone.

"There are other countries where (that) has happened, but they have been in wartime," said Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuba-based economist and population scientist who works for the Christian Center for Reflection and Dialogue in Cuba.

Albizu-Campos, who has studied Cuba's demographics for 30 years, surprised many in July when he estimated the island`s population had fallen dramatically to 8.62 million, an 18% decline in 2022 and 2023 alone, numbers he described as a "migratory stampede."

Most Cuban migrants head for the United States.

Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, of Cuba's official statistics agency ONEI, puts the population at 10.1 million, far above Albizu-Campos estimate but still an "important decline" of 10% since 2020.

The difference between the two estimates comes down to technical details that experts told Reuters are best resolved by a census.

"In Cuba's case, we are losing both population and our young people."

• World