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A massive television audience is expected to tune in on Tuesday to watch Harris go toe to toe with Trump over what both are calling the most important election of modern times
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Harris draws more support among Black voters, Trump up slightly among White voters
The race remains essentially tied, with Harris and Trump each getting 43 per cent support in an aggregate of last month's polls
This combination of pictures created on July 22, 2024, shows US Vice-President Kamala Harris arriving for an event honouring National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) championship teams from the 2023-2024 season, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC on July 22, 2024, and former US president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump standing on stage after accepting his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. — AFP
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is drawing more support from Black voters than President Joe Biden did when he was in the race this year, while Republican Donald Trump's support among White voters has risen somewhat in recent months, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling.
The analysis, which examined more than 10,000 responses from seven nationwide Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted since May, points to significant strengths and vulnerabilities for Harris, the US vice-president who took over Biden's campaign when the president dropped his re-election bid on July 21.
Harris would be the first Black woman elected president, as well as the first Asian American, if she were to defeat Trump in the November 5 election.
Some 70 per cent of Black voters polled in July picked Harris over Trump on a hypothetical ballot, up from 59 per cent who backed Biden in May and June polls. Trump's share of the Black vote rose marginally to 12 per cent in July from 9 per cent in May and June.
Trump, meanwhile, is seeing increased support from White voters. Some 50 per cent picked Trump in July polls, up from 46 per cent in May and June. Harris had the support of 38 per cent of White voters in July, compared to 36 per cent in May and June.
The race remains essentially tied, with Harris and Trump each getting 43 per cent support in an aggregate of last month's polls. Biden and Trump each had 40 per cent in the polls conducted in the previous two months.
The analysis examined poll responses gathered throughout July on a hypothetical Harris-Trump contest and included responses from before Biden, 81, ended his bid. All responses on Harris, however, were gathered after Biden's June 27 debate against Trump, when the president's faltering performance led Democrats to call on him to end his campaign.
White voters make up the biggest racial bloc, accounting for 72 per cent of all voters in the 2020 election, according to the Pew Research Center, though their share of the electorate has dropped sharply in recent decades.
African Americans accounted for only 11 per cent of voters that year. But they are a critical component of the Democratic Party's coalition and could play an outsized role in this year's election.
Black voters in Georgia, for example, propelled Biden to victory over Trump in the 2020 presidential election. But a surge in the cost of living and what they see as a lack of progress on racial justice issues has prompted disillusionment in some quarters.
Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster who specialises in minority voter outreach, said Harris needs overwhelming support from African Americans to compensate for her weakness among White voters, particularly white men and seniors. Biden won 92 per cent of the Black vote in 2020, while Trump won 55 per cent of White votes, according to analysis of exit polls by the Pew Research Center.
"She's going to have to consolidate her base of Black voters, of young voters and women of colour," Woodbury said.
Harris could be picking up a larger share of Black voters who had previously been on the fence. Some 19 per cent of Black registered voters in July said they were undecided, might pick a third candidate or not vote at all, down from 31 per cent in May and June.
A Harris campaign official said the campaign expects the race to remain close in the run-up to November.
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump has falsely accused Harris of previously downplaying her Black heritage. He drew jeers from a convention of Black journalists when he said she only promoted her Indian heritage in the past. Harris, who is of Indian and Jamaican heritage, has long identified as both Black and Asian.
Reuters combined multiple polls to examine trends among smaller racial and ethnic groups. Margins of error for the poll results varied between about two and six percentage points.
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