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Trump victory a shot in the arm for Brazil's right-wing politics

Bolsonaro was barred from public office for eight years after being convicted by Brazil's top electoral court of abusing power

Donald Trump's electoral victory in the United States has injected new energy into Brazil's hard right and stirred hopes that former President Jair Bolsonaro can mirror his return to power despite legal obstacles to running for office in 2026.

Although analysts say it is a long-shot, Bolsonaro's backers are pushing to get him amnesty after an electoral court ruled him ineligible for public office until 2030 due to his baseless attacks on Brazil's voting system in the last presidential race.

Bolsonaro, an anti-establishment firebrand who was dubbed the "Trump of the Tropics" when he was elected in 2018, thanked God for the Republican's victory on Tuesday, which he touted as improving his chances of returning to the presidency.

"Trump's victory will inspire conservatives worldwide and reinforce the movement in Brazil to re-elect Jair Bolsonaro as president in the 2026 elections," said Valdemar Costa Neto, head of Bolsonaro's right-wing Liberal Party (PL).

Party officials hailed Trump's victory as part of a global trend, including the election of right-wing libertarian Javier Milei as president of Argentina last year and Brazil's recent municipal elections confirming a more conservative electorate.

Bolsonaro and his allies have been pushing to restore his eligibility, with his son Senator Fabio Bolsonaro wearing a "Bolsonaro 2026" shirt to the polls last month.

Another son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, Brazil's representative at CPAC in the United States, was at Trump's Mar-o-Lago resort on Tuesday night celebrating his victory and posting photos with him to social media.

Leonardo Barreto of political consultancy Think Policy said Trump's victory may embolden Brazilians on the far right to resist calls to moderate their views, "because Trump didn't and he managed to get elected again".

Bolsonaro was barred from public office for eight years after being convicted by Brazil's top electoral court of abusing power and misusing public media to spread unfounded claims about the country's electronic voting system.

He has been formally accused by federal police of tampering with COVID-19 vaccination cards while in office and of embezzling jewellery gifted by the Saudi government.

Bolsonaro is also being investigated for his alleged role in a coup plot after losing his 2022 re-election bid, when his supporters vandalised government buildings in a riot that recalled the storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump backers.

PL leader Costa Neto is hoping an amnesty bill in Congress affecting some 1,600 people still in jail for the January 8, 2023 uprising in Brasilia will include Bolsonaro, opening the door for him to run again in 2026.

However, political risk consultant Lucas de Aragao said there is no reason to think the judiciary will budge on Bolsonaro's ineligibility.

"A reversal is unlikely, even with Trump's victory," he said.