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UAE expert says Trump assassination bid could lead to surge in 'sympathy votes'

On Saturday, July 13, Donald Trump was shot at by a 20-year-old as he campaigned at a rally in Pennsylvania

Published: Mon 15 Jul 2024, 4:17 PM

Updated: Mon 15 Jul 2024, 8:41 PM

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Photo: Reuters

Photo: Reuters

The assassination attempt against Donald Trump will lead to a “surge in sympathy votes” for the US Republican candidate, according to a UAE-based researcher Dr Kristian Alexander. A professor and senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute (RSDI) in Abu Dhabi, Alexander said that this could have a huge impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

“The assassination attempt has the potential to further galvanise Trump’s support base,” he said, speaking to Khaleej Times. “The incident will portray Trump as a survivor which will most definitely enhance his appeal as a resilient and determined leader. He will be seen as a martyr-like figure, and will be perceived a victim of political violence, possibly leading to a surge in sympathy votes.”

On Saturday, July 13, Donald Trump was shot at by a 20-year-old as he campaigned at a rally in Pennsylvania. The bullet 'pierced the upper part' of Trump’s right ear, he confirmed in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social.

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The gunman, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, was immediately shot dead by secret service agents. Another attendee — a 50-year-old volunteer firefighter — was also killed in the attack as he tried to protect his family.

Unifying figure

Dr Kristian said that incident is a “delicate challenge” for US President Joe Biden. “While he must condemn the violence and offer support to Trump, he remains his political adversary,” he said. “Biden’s strategy will likely involve presenting himself as a unifying figure, contrasting sharply with the devise rhetoric associated with Trump.”

He said the dysfunctionality of the American political system is partly to blame in this incident. “Polarisation has steadily increased, rendering bipartisan cooperation nearly impossible,” he said. “Politicians who attempt to bridge the divide are often delegitimised and accused of betraying their party’s values. This zero-sum mentality has transformed political rivalry into a form of warfare. The rhetoric lowers the threshold for violence, making political assassination attempts more probable.”

Dr Kristian said the immediate death of the shooter will prove to be a challenge for investigators. “Without a living suspect to provide firsthand accounts, law enforcement agencies must reconstruct the attacker’s life and possible motivations through indirect means,” he said. “This means that any conclusions drawn will inherently have degrees of uncertainty.”

Shocking incident

Meanwhile for American expats in the UAE, the incident was shocking. “In my 30-plus years, I've never encountered anything like this,” said Aaron I., MD of Jack Taylor GCC. “In history classes, we learned about JFK getting shot and the attempt on Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, but nothing this close to taking out a presidential candidate in the last 40 years.”

Aaron said he believed this was the time for Americans to remain united. “We need to collectively come together against it and show that violence is not the solution and won’t be tolerated,” he said. “If they find anyone behind this attempt, those pulling the strings need to be brought to justice. At the end of the day, wishing harm on anyone is unacceptable, and violence has no place in politics or anywhere else.”

According to local experts, the incident could have an immense impact on the global financial markets. “In the short term, the stock market may experience increased volatility as investors react to the news,” said Arun Leslie John, Chief Market, Century Financial. “Betting odds for Trump’s presidency have risen across the board. Financial markets are likely beginning to price in a potential Trump presidency, which could likely benefit infrastructure and defence companies as well as small-cap stocks, real estate stocks and energy stocks.”

Dr Kristian said the assassination attempt also highlights other issues. “The case of Thomas Matthew Crooks highlights a significant challenge in threat detection: the invisible or quite threat,” he said. “Unlike individuals who publicly broadcast their intentions or radical views, Crooks did not draw attention to himself in a way that would raise alarms."

According to him, the failed attempt on Trumps life also casts a harsh light on the effectiveness of security protocols for protecting political leaders. "The fact that the assassin could position himself with a rifle near the event site signals a significant breach in security," he added.

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