Daesh likely to pick battle-hardened Iraqi as next leader: Officials, analysts

The next leader of Daesh is likely to be from a close circle of battle-hardened Iraqi militants who emerged in the aftermath of the 2003 US invasion, two Iraqi security officials and three independent analysts said.

The group of potential successors to Abu Ibrahim Al Quraishi, who blew himself up during a US operation to capture him in Syria last week, includes one commander whom Washington and Baghdad declared killed last year, the Iraqi officials said.

The death of Quraishi, 45, was another crushing blow to Daesh two years after the violent group lost longtime leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi in a similar raid in 2019.

Quraishi, an Iraqi, never publicly addressed his fighters or followers, avoided electronic communications and oversaw a move to fighting in small devolved units in response to intense pressure from Iraqi and US-led forces.

But those following Daesh closely expect it to name a successor in coming weeks, as the group which imposed brutal rule over vast swathes of Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017 continues a stubborn and deadly insurgency.

Fadhil Abu Rgheef, an Iraqi expert who advises its security services, said there were at least four possible successors.

"These include ... Abu Khadija, whose last known role was Iraq leader for Daesh, Abu Muslim, its leader for Anbar province, and another called Abu Salih, of whom there's very little information but who was close to Baghdadi and Quraishi," he said.

"There's also Abu Yassir Al Issawi, who is suspected to be still alive. He's valuable to the group as he has long military experience."

Issawi's death in an air strike in January 2021 was reported at the time by both Iraqi forces as well as the US-led military coalition fighting Daesh in Iraq and Syria.

But an Iraqi security official confirmed there were strong suspicions Issawi is still alive. "If he's not dead he'd be a candidate, he's tried and tested in planning military attacks and has thousands of supporters," the official said.

SECURITY SWEEP

The official added that Daesh was likely carrying out a security sweep for potential leaks that led to the death of Quraishi before convening to choose or announce a successor.

Hassan Hassan, editor of New Lines magazine which has published research on Quraishi, said the new leader would be a veteran Iraqi militant.

"If they choose one in the coming weeks they'll have to choose someone from among the same circle ... the group that was part of the Anbari group which operated under (the name) Daesh since the early days," he said.

Daesh emerged from the militants that waged an increasingly sectarian-driven insurgency against US troops and Iraqi forces after 2003.

Daesh in Iraq, also known as Al Qaeda in Iraq, was an offshoot of the global Al Qaeda organisation of Osama Bin Laden and the precursor to Daesh, which took shape in the chaos of Syria's civil war across the border.

Baghdadi and Quraishi, both members of Al Qaeda in Iraq from the start, did time in US detention in the mid-2000s. In contrast, none of the four potential successors to Quraishi had been captured by US forces, one security official and one army colonel told Reuters.

Officials and analysts in various countries agree Daesh is under more pressure than it's ever been and will never restore its self-styled caliphate. But they are divided on how significant a setback Quraishi's death is for the group.

Some say the fight against Daesh will suck in the United States and its allies for years to come as it develops into a permanent insurgency with new leaders ready to take the reins.

"In Syria, Daesh units work as a devolved network of individual groups in order to avoid them being targeted. We don't therefore believe that Quraishi's death will have an enormous impact," one of the Iraqi security officials said.

"It's also become more difficult to follow them because they've long stopped using mobile phones for communication."

Since their territorial defeat in Iraq in 2017 and Syria in 2019, Daesh leaders have found it increasingly easy to move between the two countries, helped by a gap in areas of control between different armed forces, some officials say.

Security and military officials said the 600 km long border with Syria made it a very hard for Iraqi forces to prevent militants infiltrating via underground tunnels.

"Whenever a leader of the group is killed, your oath is to the (next) leader, the individual themselves, and not to the group."