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Crunch time in Spain as Catalonia attempts to form new government
The Socialists, led locally by Salvador Illa, won the most seats in a regional election in Catalonia in May but fell short of a majority
Catalan separatist leader and candidate of Junts per Catalunya - JxCat political party, Carles Puigdemont (R) raises his fist during a campaign rally in the French southeastern town of Argeles-sur-Mer on May 4, 2024 ahead of the regional election in the Spanish northeastern region of Catalonia. — AFP file
Spain faces a crucial political week with a key investiture vote expected in Catalonia which exiled Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont has vowed to attend, even though he could be arrested.
The head of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialist party in the wealthy northeastern region will undergo the vote in the local assembly after leftist separatist party ERC on Friday voted in favour of backing his efforts to form a new government.
But the agreement has angered Catalonia's other major separatist party -- Puigdemont's more hardline JxCAT -- and the issue could jeopardise its crucial support for Sanchez's fragile minority government in the national parliament.
No date has been set for the vote but it is expected at the end of the week.
Here are four things to look out for:
The Socialists, led locally by Salvador Illa, won the most seats in a regional election in Catalonia in May but fell short of a majority.
The party picked up 42 of the regional assembly's 135 seats and officially has the backing of the six lawmakers of the far-left party that is part of the Sumar alliance as well as the ERC's 20.
To form a government, Illa will need at least 68 votes in a first round of voting, or a simple majority in a second round.
But ERC members approved backing Illa's efforts to form a government by a slim margin of just 53.5 percent and some party lawmakers could rebel and vote against the Socialist candidate.
If a new Catalan regional government is not formed by August 26, fresh elections will be held in October.
Puigdemont headed the regional government of Catalonia in 2017 when it pushed ahead with an illegal secession referendum that was followed by a short-lived declaration of independence.
He fled abroad shortly after to avoid prosecution but is still wanted by Spain's justice system. Spain's Supreme Court ruled on July 1 that an amnesty law for Catalan separatists that came into force earlier this year would not fully apply to him.
In a letter posted on social network X on Saturday, Puigdemont repeated his plans to return to Catalonia for the upcoming investiture vote.
"I know that my return may entail arrest and imprisonment, who knows for how long," he wrote.
"Just as going into exile was a political decision, returning from exile is also a political decision."
Puigdemont's arrest would likely inflame the separatist base and could lead the investiture vote to be called off or the ERC to reconsider its support for Illa.
Sanchez's minority coalition government relies on six smaller regional parties including the ERC and Puigdemont's JxCAT to pass legislation in the national parliament.
JxCAT has already threatened to block the government's 2025 budget bill as long as legal challenges over the amnesty are pending.
Puigdemont's arrest would "further up the stakes" and cast doubt on Sanchez's ability to "continue governing effectively", said Eurasia Group senior analyst for Europe, Federico Santi.
Sanchez could also lose the support of Catalan separatist parties if his government fails to grant Catalonia full control of the taxes collected in the region as promised to the ERC in exchange for its support for Illa.
The proposal still must be approved by Spain's fractured national parliament where it is opposed by the conservative opposition and faces resistance from some of Sanchez's usual allies.
Global intelligence firm Stratfor said Galicia's BNG party and the Canary Island's Canary Coalition "could prove particularly difficult" since the two regions would be among those "that may be negatively impacted by the drop in state revenue".
Other regions may demand the same arrangement and the opposition could challenge the measure in court.
"The deal has opened a Pandora's box of recriminations," said Santi.
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