Russian strikes raise concerns over Ukraine's imminent F-16s

Russia's claims to have struck three Ukrainian air bases in as many days has exposed gaping holes in Kyiv's air defence capabilities and triggered questions over how it will protect a fleet of F-16 fighters due to arrive in the country.

Alongside the equipment losses, the Russian strikes this week are a major symbolic blow to Kyiv, five months after it said its priority for 2024 was to gain full control of the skies.

Moscow's defence ministry said it destroyed at least six Ukrainian planes and a helicopter in missile strikes on three separate bases this week, publishing drone reconnaissance footage of the strikes.

In the most serious strike, it claimed five Ukrainian SU-27 fighter jets were destroyed at the Myrgorod base in the Poltava region, around 150 km from the border with Russia.

It also said an Iskander missile hit a parked Mi-24 army helicopter, and a Mig-29 was destroyed in an attack on an air base in Dolgintsevo, around 100 km behind the frontline.

"The main problem is the lack of very-short and short (range) air defence," said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, an open-source analysis group studying the conflict.

"It prevents Ukraine from being able to shoot down Russian drones," he added.

That means Russia can fly reconnaissance drones deep into Ukrainian territory to secure live intelligence and coordinates for missile strikes.

In all three of this week's strikes, Russia's defence ministry published videos shot by drones of the hits and their aftermath -- demonstrating not only their ability to fly them far into Ukrainian territory but that they could stay hovering, undetected, long enough to transmit precise location data.

Moscow may have used a second drone as a "remote control relay" to increase the range of the craft scoping out the targets, a European defence industry source told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

That Ukraine also failed to thwart the incoming missiles using Western air defence systems like the Patriot, Iris-T or SAMP/T, further demonstrated Kyiv's long-standing complaints about a lack of firepower.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has for months said his country does not have enough air defence systems to protect Ukrainian cities from incoming Russian missiles, pleading with Western partners to increase deliveries.

He has said Ukraine needs at least seven more Patriot batteries to halt the Russian bombardments.

"Ukraine has a limited number of long range systems and they need to prioritise. They are not able to cover cities, critical infrastructure and air bases, they probably had to make a choice, to leave some areas undefended," Muzyka said.

Following Kyiv's lacklustre 2023 counter-offensive, Ukraine pointed to its lack of air superiority as a major factor limiting its army's ability to advance on the battlefield.

"In 2024, of course the priority is to throw Russia from the skies," foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an address to the World Economic Forum in Davos in February.

"Because the one who controls the skies will define when and how the war will end," he said.