Caught between competing goals in Lebanon, US stays on the sidelines

After weeks of intensive diplomacy aimed at securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah militants, the United States has settled on an altogether different approach: let the unfolding conflict in Lebanon play out.

Just two weeks ago, the United States and France were demanding an immediate 21-day ceasefire to ward off an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. That effort was derailed by Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah, the October 1 launch of Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon and Israeli airstrikes that have wiped out much of the group's leadership.

Now, US officials have dropped their calls for a ceasefire, arguing that circumstances have changed.

"We do support Israel launching these incursions to degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure so ultimately we can get a diplomatic resolution," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told a press briefing earlier this week.

The course of change reflects conflicting US goals — containing the ever-growing Middle East conflict while also severely weakening Iran-backed Hezbollah.

The new approach is both practical and risky.

The US and Israel would benefit from the defeat of a common enemy — Hezbollah, which Tehran uses to threaten Israel's northern border — but encouraging Israel's widening military campaign risks a conflict that spins out of control.

Jon Alterman, a former State Department official, said the US wants to see Hezbollah weakened but must weigh that against the risk of “creating a vacuum” in Lebanon or provoking a regional war.

Washington's approach, he said, seems to be: "If you can't change the Israeli approach, you might as well try to channel it in a constructive way."

Israel's latest fight with Hezbollah started when the group fired missiles at Israeli positions immediately after the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas gunmen on Israel that triggered the Gaza war. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire ever since.

As months of indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas went nowhere, Israel in September began ramping up its bombardment of Hezbollah and landed painful blows on the group, including remotely detonating Hezbollah pagers and radios, wounding thousands of the group's members.

After Nasrallah's death — which the US called "a measure of justice" — US President Joe Biden called again for a ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border.

The government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched its ground invasion anyway and within a few days the US had dropped its calls for a ceasefire and expressed support for its ally's campaign.

Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator, said Washington had little hope of restraining Israel and saw potential benefits in the operation.

"It certainly created momentum in which the administration probably thought, 'Let’s make a virtue out of necessity'," he said, adding that US officials were also likely reserving leverage to try and curtail Israel's retaliation for a ballistic missile attack that Tehran carried out last week.

Today, no meaningful ceasefire talks are under way, said European sources familiar with the matter, adding that Israelis would press ahead with their operation in Lebanon "for weeks if not months." Two US officials told Reuters that might well be the timeline.

"Netanyahu sees all of his gambles paying off and it strikes me as a hard moment for Israel to feel like it should stop pressing its advantage,” he said.