US and Iran in 'tug of war' over Lebanon, say analyst

With Iran-backed Hezbollah on the defensive after a series of heavy Israeli blows, the United States and Iran are locked in a showdown over Lebanon's future, analysts said.

Hezbollah, the most powerful regional force backed by Iran, which arms and finances it, has long held sway in Lebanon.

But the group's influence is now in question after Israel's assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in a significant setback.

Hezbollah's losses have left Lebanon in a "tug of war between Iran and the United States", said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Centre think tank.

"The Israelis with the Americans...are trying to use military force to try to transform the balance of power in Lebanon to their advantage," he said.

"There are no signs that the Iranians are going to accept this without a fight."

Hezbollah is considered better armed than Lebanon's national military and remains the only group that did not put down its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war.

Last year, it opened a new front with Israel over the conflict in Gaza, in support of its ally Hamas.

It carefully calibrated attacks to avoid a full-blown conflict, which eventually came on September 23 when Israel stepped up bombing of Hezbollah strongholds, including south Beirut.

The United States has pushed for ceasefire, but has also expressed support for Israeli attempts to "degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure".

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month that "it's clear that the people of Lebanon have an interest — a strong interest — in the state asserting itself and taking responsibility for the country and its future".

Kim Ghattas, the author of Black Wave, a book on the Saudi-Iran rivalry, said: "Lebanon is caught between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel and the US on the other."

But "Washington's vision doesn't necessarily align with Israel's in terms of war goals and tactics", she said.

"The US would certainly like to see a weakening of Hezbollah, maybe even the disarming of the group, but it is wary of Israel going too far with the military campaign."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon it could face destruction "like Gaza" as Israel vowed to keep fighting Hezbollah until it secures its northern border.

"I say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end," Netanyahu said on October 8.

Iran, for its part, "wants to preserve what's left of its assets in Lebanon and ensure the survival of the regime", Ghattas said, referring to the Islamic republic.

"It needs to walk a fine line between continuing to support Hezbollah...while signalling it is ready for diplomacy."

"It seems that politicians in Lebanon have learned lessons of the past, but the longer this current limbo and war lasts, the harder it will be to keep tensions under control," said Ghattas.