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Sri Lanka's 2022 'Aragalaya' revolt hangs heavy over presidential vote

Opinion poll shows Marxist-leaning Dissanayake leading

Just over two years since Sri Lanka's 'Aragalaya' uprising that deposed the nation's president, the movement that sparked the mass struggle is rallying behind Anura Kumara Dissanayake to lead the fight against corruption and revive a broken economy.

Marxist-leaning Dissanayake, popularly known as AKD, will be vying to become the South Asian country's new president as Sri Lankans prepare to vote on Saturday, hoping to draw on the widespread discontent that fuelled the protests in 2022 and toppled former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Rajapaksa, who many blamed for the economy's collapse that led to shortages of essentials such as fuel and medicine, was seen as emblematic of a corrupt political class out of touch with reality and the pulse of the masses.

That opened the door to Dissanayake whose political stock has risen dramatically in the two years since the economic crisis, as his National People’s Power alliance pledged to bring about change that the Aragalaya — Sinhala term for 'struggle' — movement had clamoured for.

The Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey by Institute for Health Policy (IHP) shows Dissanayake leading in voting preferences at 36 per cent, followed by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party at 32 per cent while President Ranil Wickremesinghe is third with 28 per cent.

People will vote putting aside their traditional political leanings and more on issues that led to the economic meltdown and subsequently the Aragalaya movement, said Dhananath Fernando, an economist at Colombo-based think tank Advocata Institute.

"AKD is appealing to those who view the crisis as a result of corruption, and they see this election as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to change the system," said Fernando. "It's a chance to register a protest vote against previous leaders."

Dissanayake, known for his ability to deliver stirring speeches in eloquent Sinhala, declared that he was ready to serve Sri Lankans, calling the election a "perfect opportunity" for them to put behind the pain and suffering of the crisis.

"Now that victorious moment is finally here and we should work together to ensure it is not lost," he said at a recent rally in Thambuttegama, a predominantly farming community about 180 kilometres from Colombo.

Parliament elected Wickremesinghe after Rajapaksa was forced to flee the country during the height of the 2022 protests and later resign. Wickremesinghe has managed an uncertain recovery, anchored by a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme and a $25 billion debt restructuring process.

The 2022 economic crash drove inflation to 70 per cent, power tariffs jumped 65 per cent and the currency depreciated 45 per cent. Inflation and interest rates are currently down to single digits, while growth of three per cent is expected in 2024, the first expansion since the economy shrank 7.3 per cent during the crisis.

For Melani Gunathilaka, 37, a climate and political activist who camped with friends during Aragalaya at the protest site near the president's office, the recovery has come at the cost of economic hardship and is driving people to seek political change.

"I don't think anybody thinks it's going to solve all issues but at least there should be leaders who are not insensitive to people," Gunathilaka said, referring to Saturday's vote.

"We are going through an austerity scheme... putting the burden of debt on working people while businesses and banks thrive, and I think people are expecting a change to that."

To be sure, Dissanayake's plans in his manifesto to rework a key debt restructuring programme at the core of the IMF bailout and a pledge to slash taxes that would impact fiscal targets set under it have raised worries about his economic policies.

However, during campaign speeches he has taken a more conciliatory approach, and assured that any changes will be undertaken in consultation with the IMF and he is committed to ensuring repayment of debt.

Dissanayake is not alone in championing the Aragalaya’s goal for political change.

Lawyer-activist Nuwan Bopage, 40, is contesting as a champion of Leftist policies but is not seen as a frontrunner.

"Winning or losing is a different matter. None of these parties have any solution to this crisis. Whoever wins, the people will lose," said Bopage.

Bopage wants Colombo to divest from the IMF programme, reduce taxes and backs stronger state intervention.

"Our polling indicates that overwhelming majorities have a favourable view of Aragalaya and think that the poor-rich gap has been increasing and that this is bad," IHP executive director Ravi Rannan-Eliya said.

For Dissanayake, securing victory over the weekend will only be a job half-done, as he is hamstrung by his party holding just three seats in the 225-member house. All the same, he could be emboldened to call an early parliamentary election on the back of an Aragalaya-inspired quest for change. "AKD does not claim he is the direct legacy of the Aragalaya, but he is the main beneficiary of it because he comes from the non-elites and the public are fed up with the traditional political elites," said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political scientist.