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The victory that isn’t, for Cong

Loud is a small word to use while speaking about the way national and international media presented the failure of the communist parties in the recent elections to five state assemblies in India.

People voted out the red flag holders in West Bengal and Kerala, leaving tiny Tripura the only state under the Left rule. In West Bengal, where the Left had been in power for 34 years, the front was nearly uprooted. Out of the 294 seats, the Left could win only 63, while the Trinamool Congress-led front emerged winner in 225 seats. It was a truly historic win for Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee.
But in Kerala, the loss of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) was marginal. Unlike the recent history, the change of power in Kerala this time was not a clear-cut mandate. In the 140-member assembly, the LDF led by VS Achuthanandan got 68 seats, short of a majority by three seats.
On the other hand, the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress was confident of getting a respectable victory with more than 80 seats, but couldn’t manage it. Instead, the front clinched 72 seats, which is just one above the majority required to step into the corridors of power.
Among the other states that went to the polls, the Congress achieved a decent victory in Assam, but in Tamil Nadu, it proved suicidal for the party to continue with its graft-tainted ally, the DMK, as its seat share in the elections was negligible.
In a way, it is not only the Communists, who are at a complete loss, the Congress also has a share of electoral failure.
In Kerala, the Congress won’t be brave enough to say that it was its straight victory, rather it has come via the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). The IUML, which contested 24 seats, emerged victorious in 20, while the Congress got only 38 seats out of the 82 it contested. For the CPM, it bagged 45 of the 84 seats it contested, giving a major shock to the Congress.
The victory of the UDF may actually be viewed as the victory of the IUML, which weathered all the allegations and cases. The Congress also knows that it doesn’t have much to claim in the wafer-thin majority the front managed to get.
Coming to West Bengal, though it is a relief for the Congress to oust the Left from power, the party is faced with another headache. The Congress is completely out of the game in the state as the entire show is controlled by Mamata alone. It may be possible for the Communists to bounce back after five or 10 years, but for the Congress, there is no option other than continuing as a silent partner in the front.
The 42 seats it has managed in the elections has nothing to do with the party’s popularity. West Bengal is a state where the Congress had a strong leadership that even dared to keep a firebrand leader like Mamata Banerjee at a distance while she was in the party. And remember, the Congress had 21 seats in the 2006 elections while Mamata’s Trinamool had just 30 seats. The plight of the Congress is more than pathetic and the future seems to be bleak.
As for Tamil Nadu, nobody could claim that the Congress has more supporters in the state than the Communists. Both are minimal. The Congress fought the elections with the help of the DMK and got just five seats.
In Pondicherry also, the Congress was at a loss. The party’s former chief minister N. Rangasamy’s new party, AINRC, came to power in alliance with the AIADMK while the Congress scored meagre nine seats there.
So in what was termed as India’s mini-general elctions, the Congress’ performance, except in Assam, was unimpressive. This, in turn, has strenghtend regional political parties like the TMC, the AINRC and the IUML.
The Communists were, of course, a loser, save Kerala’s bold fight and the 21 seats won in Tamil Nadu. But the winner is definitely not the Congress.
While the Communists stand a chance to come back to power, both in Kerala and West Bengal, for the Congress, there is no future in these states.
anuwarrier@khaleejtimes.com