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Why China could overtake US in 2018, says global expert

Dubai - Dr Ian Bremmer said that "China will rise as US fall imminent"

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Chinese power leading the way and polarisation becoming a 'chronic condition' rather than 'crisis' are some of the mega trends that will lead the year 2018, said a global expert.
Speaking during the Arab Strategy Forum on Tuesday, Dr Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, said Chinese economic power will take over the US in 2018, attributing it largely to the presidency of Donald Trump in America.
Bremmer said Xi Jinping's recent 3.5-hour speech that announced a 'new era' of Chinese politics and power can be considered among the most influential speeches made by a leader in the modern history.
"When the US pulls out of the Paris climate agreement, when the US pulls out of Unesco and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and announces occupied Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, all members of the UN turned against it. The US is all by itself now," said Bremmer.
When that happens, he said, it gives a strong leader like Xi who consolidated power domestically to prove that his country has the strong model that will lead and make a difference.

Why China could usurp US Although the US economy is bigger, the strength of Chinese government to use its economy around the world is greater than the US, according to Dr Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. "The US economy is bigger, but the economy is not the US government." Bremmer attributed China's strength to its ability to provide jobs for the inefficient labour, while also leading the world industrial robots. "In a world where workers are becoming more inefficient and automation creates new jobs that people of old jobs don't have the skills for, do not underestimate the incredible importance of China to lead not only world industrial robots but also employment of inefficient labour."

"For decades, the US presumed that when the China gets wealthy, it will either be like the US or fall apart. But looking ahead, [China] will neither fall apart nor be like US, which will drive a lot of countries to align themselves economically more to Beijing than Washington," added Bremmer.
He said that while the US has been urging countries to reform, in 2018, the American political system will need a reform.
Furthermore, Bremmer stressed that Europe's polarisation and populism will become a chronic condition in 2018, rather than a 'crisis'.
He attributed polarisation to Brexit, the French elections and Germany's Angela Merkel's government weakening after recent elections. "The structural inequality isn't a crisis in the US and Europe...but a condition we are prepared to live with," said Bremmer.
He said the same issue is expected with Trump's Jerusalem move after Israel decided "two-state solution is dead".
sherouk@khaleejtimes.com